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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.